Paul Kedrosky

I have another economic author to introduce. He is Paul Kedrosky who has an impressive resume who writes clearly and concisely. He has a post on the seeking alpha investment website which I urge readers to examine. He is recapitulating much of what I have written in past posts regarding the debt to GDP issue. It is Thursday morning and it looks like snow here in Jackson Hole with a winter storm warning tonight. The storm going on over in Iceland continues to worsen and its leaders are frantically passing the hat to anyone who will listen including the IMF and Russia. Trading in the Icelandic Krona has ceased. Icelands equity markets are closed until at least next week. Things are not much better over in Putinland. Their equity markets seem to also have been closed more often than they have been open and though the oil boom has given them a half of trillion in foreign currency reserves they are falling with the rest of us and now a report on Bloomberg this morning on Siberian grain production falling and debt problems in their agricultural sector is alarming. The suddenness and rapidity of this economic asteroid could only have occurred with the aid of computers and the internet and meanwhile the keystone cops over in bushville race around crashing into each other with firehoses against a backdrop of the resurgent SNL and the amazing Tina Fey. Interesting times here at what is looking like the end of empire. Here is Paul’s article in seekingalpha:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/99090-the-beginning-of-the-endgame-for-monetary-policy-redux

Cargo Bikes

I guess I will keep doing daily posts as long as this financial hurricane continues on its relentless path into, through and over our lives. The presidential debates were of low import with McCain wanted to Federalize bad mortgages of all stripes which would be trillions not billions and he will apparently do that by cutting taxes. Obama gave me a glimmer of hope when he listed energy as a top priority. The markets are still tanking everywhere and now a moment of silence for poor Iceland, the land of geothermal city heat, pretty women and volcanoes. Their debt to GDP ratio of 12:1 exceeds the current runner up, good ole US of A at only 3.5:1. Either the country of some or all of its banks may default as early as this week. So it’s time for a cheery link from the LA Times:Cargobikes! Where can I get one? YOYO
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/bottleneck/2008/09/weve-posted-ple.html

Meet Professor Daly

Professor Herman Daly is a well known economist who wrote a recent post on theoildrum.com dealing with among other things steady state economics, a concept of real wealth and the unfolding disaster in our financial system. He is a former senior economist at the World Bank and he wrote a seminal book on the emerging field of ecological economics entitled “Steady State Economics”. I think his post in the oil drum is excellent and I will provide the link here:http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4617#more.

I wrote a comment to his article in response to a comment by Gail the Actuary who is one of the fine staff members on the Oil Drum in which she mused on possible consequences of Daly’s ideas. My response follows.

Comments top

Gail points to some consequences of Herman’s ideas. It does seem obvious that there will be less credit but it will take VASTLY less credit and debt to bring the system back toward a steady state. It is the sheer huge size of our combined government, corporate and individual debt about $50+ trillion vs our GDP $13 or $14 trillion) that daunts me.That is a ratio of over 3.5 to 1. At the nadir of the Great D that ratio had soared to only 2.5 to 1. Most TOD ers believe that cheap energy has allowed the kind of productivity that has converted that oil drum into a drum of something more valuable but if that cheap drum of oil isn’t replaced with another cheap drum of a different energy, then where will the productivity emanate from? If growth slows or stops or becomes negative, that debt will never be repaid unless the currency is expanded, ie inflation. I think we have here not a problem but a “predicament” as JM Greer has pointed out in his latest book,”The Long Descent.” Greer points out that problems may have solutions but predicaments do not.We know what expanded debt and credit did to the economy when the expansion was out of phase with real wealth creation and we fear what the consequences of pulling the plug on debt and credit might be, but what other choices are there? The huge majority of the nation opposed the banking bailout by a treasury secretary who was a Goldman Sachs former CEO. The problems were created and advanced by investment banks and bankers such as Paulson and his tribe so here we had the ludicrous spectacle of a banker bailing out himself paid by us using a hurry up offense. He promoted the banking bailout to prevent something worse.But he advanced no evidence to support his assertions that something worse might happen. Something worse may happen anyway but at least his former bank and his former tribal members are sleeping better.The morons and crooks who devised and promoted this debacle are not being punished but most of their employees are, as well as most of the country. The wall street banking industry owned the government and now the positions are reversed. They have the cash and we have the trash. As to How Prof Daly would handle a transition……well how can we transition from a situation of debt and credit created wealth to wealth? We can’t. There is no easy way to erase wealth. Most of our wealth was chimera. It was never there anyway. Should we punish the banking axis of evil? Of course. Would it yield much money? of course not but sending a horde of these bankers and buffoons to the guillotine would send a message.This hurried and poorly thought out propping up of a failed financial system just delays the inevitable collapse. The investment banks should have been allowed to fail. There would have been huge financial harm to all manner of people and not just the investment banks who were leveraging and trading their own securities but innocents like the Norwegian Teacher’s union and pensioners in Japan and Korea and other banks and insurance and pension funds and even governments worldwide. But they bought those securities. I didn’t nor did 99% of my citizens. You choose. You lose. Will the world ever trust the US financial system again? Not in my lifetime, with or without a bailout. Daly points out the obvious that for wealth to be real, it has to be real. Real wealth is created by people doing real work not pushing paper oops! I mean hitting a keyboard to create a CDS to insure against a default which the bogus insurer can’t pay anyway. GDP will fall and fall hard. There will be no way to balance a trade deficit that is 70% due to our purchase of imported oil any more than we can have energy independence by drilling off Virginia or California. YOYO folks. You’re on your own. Hugh in Jackson Hole.

Depression thoughts

Today a veritable mushroom field has sprung up using the debt to GDP figures I noticed several weeks ago that compelled yesterdays post. There is a an excellent article by James Quinn on the seekingalpha investment website which lays it out far better than I did and he gives detailed historical perspective to the problem which is illuminating. Dupont and JP Morgan trying to raise an army? MY, MY. The ad hominem attacks which follow in the comments were ludicrous but good for a few laughs. People simply cannot abide a messinger of bad news. I am sorry that my graph of debt to GDP did not display the years after 2002. Use the link here to see them better.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/98769-our-coming-depression?source=email#comment-275646

A Warning

I sent an email to friends 2 weeks ago today that I thought the Great Depression had begun. I qualified my statement to say that a recession was ongoing and that a depression was possible. This morning’s events in world markets increases the odds. The commodity drop is now the worst in 50 years. Source: Bloomberg. Iceland which until recently had the highest per capita income and was judged the most livable country is in free fall with soaring debt and interest rates and failing banks.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/05/iceland.creditcrunch
Bill Fleckenstein who posts at MSNMoney and Jim Grant who has a financial consulting firm were the first sources for the following figures and Matt Blackman at the seekingalpha site has recently put them in very readable form. If you are not sitting down, by all means, sit down. No, LAY DOWN.
We seem to be entering a deflationary recession/depression.A variety of authors, Nouriel Roubini among them have stated that in a deflationary bear barket there are no safe havens. Almost everything will lose value(Website: rgemonitor.com). The US equity markets as of last Friday had lost a quick trillion. The Case-Shiller index reports 3 trillion in housing losses to date. The numbers that stun are the debt to GDP figures.

click to enlarge

Since 2000 all debt from homeowners, companies and government has grown 25% faster than the economy. And what kind of economy have we had in the past 8 or 10 years? Investment banking generating financial weapons of mass destruction, the last gasp of our suburban housing sprawl and mindless consumption of cheap Chinese products often funded by home equity loans. And a large part of this debt has been explosively augmented by leveraging at all levels of the investment banking, insurance, hedge fund and pension fund markets in an unregulated but highly linked greedy free for all capitalistic market which is imploding on a collossal scale. Debt as a percentage of GDP has doubled since Reagan took office and IMO when historians write the story, this depression will have said to have begun with the Reagan administration. In the first quarter of this year the total credit to GDP ratio had soared to 350%. That’s right:Our credit was 3 1/2 times our GDP. In 1932 that ratio was about 2 and 1/2 times GDP. Despite what CNBC and other bobbleheads say, Treasury was struggling to peddle enough TBills and other securities to fund a deficit of “just”$400 Billion. With the bailout, that struggling could turn to flailing. Scroll down about halfway to see the pertinent graph .

http://tradesystemguru.com/content/view/214/58/#TIC
The government leaders have demonstrated their cluelessness with rushed decisions poorly deliberated at odds with the wishes of their main street constuents. Will the bailout work? Probably not. The problem seems too big. Perhaps we are in the same predicament as was Henry Kissinger during the Balkan crisis when he said “Whatever we do will be wrong, including doing nothing.”
There is little doubt that we are nowhere near the end of this story. What can we do as individuals?
Raise cash if you can. Sell anything that is not essential to survival. Buy nothing BUT essentials. Buy tools.Cut expenses to the bone and reduce all forms of energy consumption. Turn the heat down, buy a clothesline, carpool,combine car trips, use a bicycle, buy bulk foods and stockpile a year of staples like the Mormons. Stockpile other obious essentials like medication , batteries, warm clothing and comfortable footwear etc. In some parts of this country you may need ammunition and firearms if for no other reason than acquiring venison. Consider the possibility of losing your job, your house, your health insurance. It may not happen but try to formulate plans dealing with a calamity of this scale. You may need to move in with friends or family to save costs and combine resources. Be nice and don’t burn any bridges. If you have a house, petition your local officials to slash your property taxes but be aware that if tax revenue plummets, so will services from police and fire to trash collection and road repair. Make sure you have a rleliable vehicle capable of a long road trip. Store fuel with fuel stabilizer added but be careful of the obvious danger. Discuss the situation with the family in a calm and controlled fashion.The government, the congress, and the financial markets are out of control. It doesn’t mean you have to be. Your family, your neighborhood and your community may need leaders. Think about what it takes to be a good leader and try to become one.Have money and perhaps some gold or silver coins on hand and be prepared to barter.
It’s not the end of the world and if it becomes a full scale depression, it will take perhaps a long time to play out. This country and many parts of the world were on an unsustainable path of heedless consumption and impossible expansion driven my unbelievable cheap energy. That party is over and we will need to think about how to remake our country and our communities into something sustainable and liveable. We will need to rebuild domestic manufacturing,build regional food production and distribution and learn to take care of ourselves on a local and regional level. We were a nation of specialists and we will have to become a nation of generalists. Our lives will likely become more like our grandparents than our parents. That could be a very positive way to live. We will have less mobility. Some regions of the country will not be able to survive at their current density and will depopulate. If somehow this current economic calamity plays out better than expected, be grateful, but the paradigm is changing and there will be no going back to the old sprawling profligacy of the last 30 or 40 years. These are exciting times.

A comment to a recent financial blog

I have decided to change the format of my original blog to include articles of opinion on current economic and social problems facing us in this 21st century. If there are any readers, I will have to warn them that this current site is not organized around that concept now and I will try to clean up unrelated posts and comments going forward to enhance readibility. In the meantime, bear with me.

I am a fan of fellow blogger Roger Nusbaum who writes a lively investment website and a recent comment from Roger compelled me to comment onm his recent comment of turmoil in the financial markets. His blog link is: http://randomroger.blogspot.com/

I am a fan of Roger and he does a good service for a lot of us. But there is one thing he says which I see repeated endlessly everywhere in books, blogs and bobbleheads everywhere. Simply put it’s the cyclicality assumptions built in to all of the models. Commonly you see the 10 to 11% returns touted by investment advisers, the so called average return from US markets, going back 50 or 100 years or whatever. And Roger points out that we are now going on 10 years of 0 returns in the S&P.Hmmm. ,that might hurt the averages a bit. Recompute. Now take those 0 returns and add in real purchasing power, inflation etc and you are looking at real substantial negative returns for the last 10 years. Using returns from a short period of human history as the expected returns going forward is nonsensical blathering. The last 100 or 150 years of US and world industrial economic history was unique and will not likely be repeated. Nearly free fossil energy was the economic underpinning of this industrial revolution and the party is over. Of course there will be bouncebacks and recoveries and mays to make dough going forward but the factors that gave you 11% returns for the last 50 to 75 years will not be repeated for the next 75. Roger is a smart guy and he may see 11% returns but it’s my firm contention that the S&P will not. I also manage money for a few people and putting most of their money in Swiss francs and gold and some energy stocks a
year ago hasn’t made them any money but it has kept them from the 30% losses that most of the rest of us have experienced including myself by staying in equities. There is nowhere to hide if we are in a deflationary bear market. Whether this deflationary recession turns into an inflationary depression or recession is unclear. But the factors causing this destruction of our banking and insurance systems, the unwinding of leverage and the proliferation of toxic securities, CDS’s. CDO’s and other carcinogenic derivatives are not going away any time soon and speculating whether we are now at a bottom at 1095 on the S&P or any other number is a waste of time IMO.If you read books of the great depression you find comments identical to today like: don’t panic, stay the course etc. The people who held on using that advice didn’t lose 30%, they lost 90% top to bottom in the great D.If you lose 90%, you aren’t coming back. If you have lost 30%, it will take you about 4 years to recover your losses if you can meet historical average returns. What if your return is 5%,1%? My final point is that most financial advisers don’t look at the big picture issues of the economic and financial system. If the way we finance governmental expenditures is based on debt and credit and it is unsustainable, I think it is no stretch to say that our financial and economic system and our currency is in grave peril. There are so many converging predicaments and incurred obligations that calling it a Black Swan event understates the gravity. There is no way this debt will ever be paid off, that these obligations will ever be met. This is a Black Swan event with a whole flock of swans. Roger, I hope you keep hard at it but I hope you and your readers try to examine your underlying assumptions from time to time and at least consider the possibility that cyclicality assumptions about stock performance nay not work if the economic paradigm is changing. I would encourage any interested students of this subject to turn off CNBC and start reading worldwide sources of fact and opinion. Der Spiegel carried a recent long article on this american crisis which was well crafted and stunning. The link:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,581502,00.html

Peak Oil Impacts in Jackson Hole

Peak Oil and Strategies for a sustainable future in Jackson Wyoming

The following discussion is an attempt to bring to the fore The Most important event of our time. That event is called PEAK OIL.

Peak Oil is the term coined by a Texas geologist by the name of M. King Hubbert to describe that point in the earth’s history when mankind has consumed one half of all the petroleum that is available. After that peak, also known as Hubbert’s Peak, production of oil will go into decline. Using clever statistical methodology, Hubbert predicted at The national API meeting in San Antonio Texas in 1956 that US petroleum production would peak about 14 years hence and thereafter go into irreversible decline. He was ridiculed and persecuted for the next 14 years but in 1970, it happened. He had nailed it. US production has been in decline ever since. He also predicted dire consequences for the US Economy based on his predictions and for this and other reasons he is regarded as the father of Peak Oil. Few people then understood the consequences of Peak Oil and few today as well but finally prescient people worldwide are starting to sound the clarion call of what Peak Oil will mean to our lifestyles.

Where does oil came from? It was a result of photosynthesis in which CO2 and water combine with solar energy to form glucose and in the process release Oxygen.. Glucose fuels the growth and development of the organism which adds mass and complexity, perhaps becoming green algae.. During a period of global warming several hundred million years ago algae and other organisms proliferated, thrived and then died, falling slowly to the bottom of a warm prehistoric sea. If conditions were right, something called a nutrient trap could develop and these organisms were not broken down by oxygen and the carbon instead of being returned to the surface as CO2 became instead sequestered in an accumulating mass of carbon rich matter. I will gloss over the additional details of conversion and oil formation and skip ahead to Pennsylvania when an entrepreneur named Edwin Drake drilled the first commercial oil well in 1859. America was thus first to the petroleum banquet and it was this discovery and utilization of an unimaginably rich and concentrated energy source that fueled an explosive industrial expansion. We have consumed in a period of only 150 years what it took the world more that 100 million years to produce. And now as Richard Heinberg has stated in his book of the same name, “The Party’s Over.”. It is typical of organisms and communities that experience an unexpected energy subsidy to go through a process of overshoot and collapse. We are entering what another well known writer on peak oil, James Howard Kunstler has coined “The Long Emergency.”

The world is today producing about 85 million barrels per day (Mbd) of crude oil. It is the same amount that the world produced in 2006 and 2005 despite increased demand . The US consumes ¼ of that total. It imports about 15 Mbd and domestically produces the rest.. Transportation consumes about 70%, the bulk of course to fuel automobiles. The US is 4 ½% of the population and consumes 25% of the world’s oil.

It is absolutely fundamental for the reader to grasp how phenomenally important oil has been to the transformation and development of modern society. It is much more than a fuel. It is the feedstock for plastics, fertilizer, pesticides, paints, fabrics, and lubricants, pharmaceuticals, and a myriad of building materials. Indeed, one author has written that oil will eventually become too valuable to use as a transportation fuel.

Oil is the basis of our economic system, a point largely missed by contemporary economists who maintain that it is the allocation of capital and labor that forms this basis. Our growth economy exists because of oil. It is also the basis of our credit and debt based financing of the economy. Oil promotes growth by its very efficiency as a low cost energy source. The low cost energy of oil fuels almost all of our industrial machines and it is in effect itself a kind of machine that converts energy into wealth. It is analogous to having thousands of slaves at our beck and call every day. My 200 hp pickup truck thundering down the highway does the work of 4000 people! Many of the empires of ancient times became empires on the basis of the energy harvested from slaves. At one point it is said that ancient Rome had a ratio of slave to free of 9:1, which was an unsustainable ratio. The contemporary American has the equivalent of 50 slaves working for him 24 hrs a day. This will also prove to be unsustainable. Petroleum has been a primary or contributory cause of many recent wars with the Iraq fiasco only the most recent example. The inevitable depletion of this, the most important energy source ever discovered, will alter our lives going forward like no other event in national or world history.

It is time for us residing in this beautiful isolated valley to recognize the reality of Peak Oil and how it will shape the future of Jackson Hole. We can either shape our future adapting in the context of petroleum depletion or fall prey to its effects. I believe that local governments are the best qualified to evaluate our local dependency on oil and what strategies we might employ to try to attenuate and mitigate the impacts of scarce and expensive oil upon our community. I have little expectation of help at least initially from our state or national government. Fortunately we in Jackson have had some farsighted local leaders who love this valley and who have tried to provide a culture of sustainability, community organization and responsible energy consumption. I believe it is now time for the people of this area to come together and devise a master strategy for the future life of our town. I hope Jackson will survive as a healthy place to live and work and raise families but if it does, it will certainly be in a much different form than it is today. If it does, it will become intensely local. Angus Thuermer, the editor of this paper, remarked to me that Jackson lies at the” end of the food chain.” We are indeed a long way from any metropolitan area. Without petroleum no one and nothing arrives in Jackson. And that means virtually all our food, our fuel, our building materials, our medical supplies, even our elk feed. What do we make in Jackson? Nothing. How would we cope if that pipeline went dry, or if the electrical grid failed? Some of you who were here in the winter of 1978 remember what it was like when the mercury plummeted to 60 below zero. Power lines contracted and snapped, the ceiling in the courthouse collapsed and travel came to a standstill with no electricity, no gas, and no lights. Eventually temperatures moderated but that event gave me a foretaste of what cataclysmic energy deprivation felt like. Our future energy shortages will probably involve shortages of individual energy components, perhaps like what China is experiencing at the moment. In Chendu, the capital of Sichuan province, a city of 10 million, trucks have been lining up at the three stations who have diesel, waiting hours to receive their paltry ration of 40 litres..Gasoline is $4.54/gal in some towns in the eastern Sierra and almost $10 in the Hebrides when they can get it. Maine-iacs in the state of Maine are being asked to conserve electricity because of short supplies and it’s not even winter. These are places at the end of the food chain too.

My point is that it is time that we develop a plan for coping with energy resource depletion before it is upon us. An event of this magnitude will almost certainly involve a task force approach to assess our vulnerabilities and strengths and local resources to devise our survival plan. This may involve formulating a risk management approach of scenario creation looking at every important component of the community such as communications, policing, delivery of essential services, access to food and water, care of our vulnerable members and all of this to be done in a context of scarce or expensive petroleum or electricity. This town has done a lot of this work already, for example powering all of its municipal operations with renewable energy, but equally important besides crisis management is to look at what changes we might undertake to make this valley and its towns more livable. For most of the 20th century we built our towns to service the automobile and our expanding sprawling suburbs. The existence of sprawl was only possible because of virtually free seemingly inexhaustible energy. In retrospect, it was a terrible expensive mistake. The outlying suburbs are ultimately doomed. We are fortunate we live in a small place and haven’t had the room to expand like our neighboring states to the south and west. But we should take action now. At the very least, we should mandate energy efficiency in all aspects of our lives. This is not something we can leave to market forces. Increasing efficiency is easy. It is the low hanging fruit. This must involve all aspects of county and regional planning. We will need to look at our civic structures and building codes. We should use carrots as well as sticks to ensure compliance. We need first to educate and convince our citizens of the necessity of our task but we will need their cooperation. Increasingly as we localize, we will need to rely more and more upon each other personally. For example, we may need to think of abandoning plats for new suburbs composed of single-family homes and mobile homes. In a cold mountain valley, they are energy hogs. We should look at contiguous structures of higher density with super insulated building envelopes, fuel stingy appliances and perhaps earth sheltered or solar thermal augmented design features. Germany is doing this today. Offer our builders options to reduce administrative and permit costs if they can find ways to build green. For example I would waive all permits if a builder could increase the energy efficiency of a building say, 50 or 100 % over a conventional building. Building material costs can only increase in the future and we must build for extended building lifespan. We should abandon single use zoning and move immediately to mixed use where people could live and work and shop in the same place. Some current absurd codes that require so many parking spots per unit need to be abolished. I recently returned from northern Italy and in Bolzano people can walk to obtain all the necessary and enjoyable niceties of life. The streets are crowded with folks on foot and on bicycles that are easily rented in the town square near the train station. Cars are discouraged but not prohibited. And striking to an American’s eyes, very few people are FAT. Small trucks supply the stores, offices and habitations with their necessary supplies. Many of the workers live on site. The first floors seemed to be shops and restaurants, the next floor was often office space and above the offices were apartments and homes. Alleys allowed the offices and retail shops to function without disturbing pedestrian traffic. We could do this in Jackson. As another local example, we have a sprawling largely single floor hospital that is energy profligate and inefficient as are most hospitals. We have staff and nurses who cannot find affordable housing often coming from great distances over perilous roads from Star Valley and Idaho. Why don’t we have a 4 or 5 story hospital with housing and necessary shops for our staff? I was in just such a hospital in France 30 years ago after a skiing mishap. The nurses lived on site in the hospital in their convent. Why don’t we adopt a livable sustainable sister city instead of cities overseas with which we have little in common. Certainly there are state and federal regulations that will have to be changed to accommodate a healthy new dynamic but it just those existing regulations that have let us to our current predicament.

This discussion must begin with life’s basic necessities starting with food and water. How can we procure our food locally? How many people could this valley support if we had to feed ourselves? Maybe we should think about permitting sustainable farming practices around our periphery if the soil is suitable for agriculture. That flat fertile land where the elk browse looks pretty good to me. Kelley Warm springs could be a good place for a geothermally heated greenhouse. We may want to look at a drilling plan to try to prospect for other hot rock geothermal areas to heat our greenhouses .Why not produce electricity domestically? Our consumer owned utility allows net metering but why cannot Lower Valley or our state government help offices and homes become individual mini power plants delivering power to our local grid with wind or PV solar or local hydro? A lot of electricity available on the regional grids is lost to transmission losses. We have a recently rebuilt dam on Jackson Lake, which probably could supply the entire valley with cheap hydroelectric power. I believe it could be done without disrupting wildlife, our recreational businesses or visually impairing the beauty of that great lake. Of course all of these ideas involve difficult tradeoffs and compromise but obtaining a source of renewable clean energy is a potentially huge payoff.

This is a valley dependent on tourism. Will the tourists continue to arrive from the far-flung corners of the empire if gas or JP4 jet fuel goes to $10, $20 or $50 a gallon or if it becomes rationed? There is one way that they could arrive. That is by rail, the way visitors to Yellowstone used to arrive. Trains are unique in that their engines can run on almost any fuel from electricity to coal to corncobs. The same cannot be said about planes or busses or heavy trucks. Our valley electricity could supply those trains and streetcars and trolleys to move our guests who will always want to see this, the most beautiful valley in America. We should move to electrify our entire national transportation infrastructure immediately. It will take time to lay track and build a rail network but Wyoming is one of the richest states in the country per capita and we need to start this immense project while we still have surpluses. Where will the money come from for this massive project that will rival the interstate highway network in scope and cost? Our country has subsidized automobiles and highway based transportation and aviation for almost a century. The gas tax is $0.18 a gallon and the tax on aviation fuel is 4 cents!! We need to drastically raise the tax on petroleum while there is still petroleum to tax. Alan Greenspan recently suggested $3.00/gallon, which is about what Europe charges. In fact it may need to be more because they already have a rail infrastructure. There is no way we can repair and maintain all our roads and bridges nor should we. We need to prioritize our key travel corridors and gradually abandon non-essential maintenance on hard surfaced highways. Get used to gravel roads. They are in your future. Asphalt comes from what? And concrete is extremely energy costly to produce. An 8-lane concrete and steel highway bridge across the Mississippi to Minneapolis will cost a small fortune and have a limited lifespan. A rail bridge is far cheaper and faster to build, inspect and maintain. Forget airport expansion projects anywhere. Perhaps they can morph into transportation hubs for a variety of transportation options but air travel will likely become what it was in the dawn of aviation, a conveyance of the wealthy. If you have traveled on France’s bullet trains or Italy’s sleek Eurostar streamliners that silently blow past Ferraris on the autostradas, you’ll soon forget the pleasures of removing your shoes under the grim faces of the TSA.

Our community may need fewer hotels and restaurants in the post Peak Oil Era as our population and businesses strive to live within the carrying capacity of this valley. A lot more of us will probably be engaged in farming and ranching and gardening and few of us will have careers in marketing and human resources. Eventually Wyoming may come to resemble what it looked like at the turn of the last century. It seems to me that that would not be such a bad thing.

Book Review of The Party’s Over by Richard Heinberg

Peak oil is the term coined by a Texas geologist by the name of M. King Hubbert in 1957 to describe that point in the earth’s history when mankind has consumed one half of all the petroleum that is or would ever be available. After that peak, called “Hubbert’s Peak”, production of oil would go into decline. Hubbert prediced well in advance when that point would be reached and what he felt would be the consequences for an oil addicted economy. Few people believed him then and even fewer understood the consequences of Peak Oil.

I stumbled on this book while researching ways to reduce volatility and risk in an investment portfolio. One afternoon a flashbulb went off and I realized that cheap energy poses the greatest risk to an investment portfolio. How energy flows through an economy determines the growth and direction of that economy. Our modern economy is oil. Oil is our economy. If I am right, removing that oil, that unbelievably cheap and concentrated energy source, will bring down this economy.It is the sine qua non whose inevitable departure will end this 150 year party of suburban spawl, population explosion and hypermobility, resource extraction and industrialization. It is typical of organisms and communities that experience an unexpected energy subsidy to go through a process of overshoot and collapse. Think of predator/prey populations,the Roman, Mayan, Inca civilizations for example. Oil drives all aspects of our economy. It is the basis of our transportation infrastructure; It is the feedstock for plastics, fertilizer,pesticides,paints,fabrics and lubricants as well as a myriad of building materials from insulation to asphalt. Missed by most contemporary economists, and this bears repetition, Oil is THE basis of our economic system. Most economists maintain that it is the allocation of capital and labor that is the basis.The growth in cheap energy allows and promotes the growth in gdp, productivity, debt and credit. It is THE foundation. Remove the foundation of a building and what happens? Malthus will likely be proven to be correct. His and to some extent, Erlich’s contention that population increases exponentially and food production arithmetically did not take into account oil’s effect on food production. Remove that energy prop and history will judge these men differently.

This book by Richard Heinberg is superior to most of the other books available on the subject because of the care with which he builds his argument starting with an ecologic approach of how energy, nature and society are interwoven. His approach is sober, scholarly, and logical but it never lags. He goes out of his way to avoid being harsh, sarcastic or judgmental and he analyzes the arguments against peak oil, what alternatives there might be, and what approaches we might take to mitigate and attenuate the consequences of the depletion of this, the world’s most important resource. The strength of the book is the concise argumentation, the data he marshals to link geopolitical and climate change events into the fabric, and the consequences to America and the world if we fail to acknowledge this, the most important event facing the world today. My apology to Al Gore. Let’s hope he will wake up and realize that he has devoted a good part of his life to the second most important issue of our time. Perhaps he can now devote his next film to Peak Oil. If there is a weakness to the book, I would say that he does not explain vociferously enough why if this Peak Oil concept is so important, why then has it been so totally ignored by the media, and our political and corporate leaders? I wish he had spent more time delineating more possible solutions to this looming collapse of our energy supply and economy. Richard Heinberg is a brilliant scholar on the subject . He is a gentle soul. That is his strength and his weakness. This bookin its most recent edition deserves a place on absolutely everyones bookshelf. If you accept his argument, your life will never be the same again.

Un Alquiler de las vacaciones en Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA

Tenemos un alquiler de las vacaciones en el agujero de Jackson para el alquiler a corto plazo. Preferiríamos a clientes que desearían 1 o más semana duration.We están 3 millas del área del esquí de la aldea de Teton y a 8 millas de la ciudad de Jackson. Nuestro alquiler es 900 pies cuadrados con 2 camas de la reina, un futon de la reina, instalaciones modestas el cenar y de la cocina, un baño completo con el balneario, y una ducha separada. Se jacta una localización aislada y una vista espectacular de la montaña de Rendezvous y del área del esquí. Está situado convenientemente cerca del aeropuerto, de la ciudad de Jackson, y de los parques magníficos de Teton y de Yellowstone. La característica está en un área cultivada importante y se divierte las visiónes y las amenidades normalmente inasequibles en el mercado del hotel y del condo. Es rodeada por las corrientes y las charcas, fauna y aves acuáticas, los Mountain View espectaculares pero está dentro de la distancia que camina o biking de las compras, actividades bancarias 4 restaurantes de la estrella, cursos de golf, pesca de la trucha, transportando en balsa, área del esquí de la aldea el ir de excursión y del theTeton con la gota vertical más alta de América. También proporcionamos Wifi de banda ancha, televisión por cable y una computadora de escritorio y una impresora completas. Con una cuenta de Skype usted puede telefonar dondequiera en el mundo barato. Usted tiene su propia entrada privada. Pedimos solamente que usted respete el seclusion y la tranquilidad salvajes de nuestra característica y que no fume en la característica. Nos placeríamos compartir nuestro hogar y equipo con usted y recomendar restaurantes, compras, deportes y las amenidades de la reconstrucción que correctas fuera de su puerta. Fijaré algunos cuadros aquí de nuestra casa y alquiler principales asumidos el control los 12 meses pasados que demuestran escenas del interior y del exterior. Si usted llega de una destinación extranjera, nos encantarían para tomarle en el aeropuerto, y le ayudamos a arreglar el transporte y la paz y reclinarle necesitará después de un vuelo largo. Tenemos fluidez modesta en español, alemán, francés e italiano.